# tavernresearch.com

> AI-optimized mirror of tavernresearch.com containing 50 pages totalling 31,195 words of clean markdown content, structured data, and semantic HTML. Original source: https://tavernresearch.com/. Last updated: 2026-04-26T18:32:39.570Z.

Each page is available as HTML (with JSON-LD structured data) and Markdown (text-only, ideal for LLMs and RAG).

## Homepage

- [Tavern Research](/site-root.html): Tavern Research specializes in opinion research, AI-powered content creation, message testing, and strategic insights to inform campaigns and influence public opinion effectively., Tavern Research specializes in opinion research, AI-powered content creation, message testing, and strategic insights to inform campaigns and influence public opinion effectively. (325 words)

## Articles & Blog Posts

- [Calibration or Contrition](/research-and-writings/calibration-or-contrition/index.html): One of the things that is sorely lacking in the practice of evidence-based campaigns is a coherent theory of politics. We’ve spent decades optimizing what is easy to measure and in many ways have lost sight of what’s important for winning elections. I’ve made my career in evidence-based campaigning,,  (977 words)
- [Iran Messaging: The economic frame keeps winning. Exit strategy is now a weapon. Don’t say “Iraq.”](/research-and-writings/iran-message-testing-define-the-mission/index.html): A full week of Iran message testing confirms economic framing dominates. Pocketbook appeals hit +9.4 points. Four new traps identified: Iraq analogies, geopolitical framing, aggressive tone, bipartisan tone.,  A full week of Iran message testing confirms economic framing dominates. Pocketbook appeals hit +9.4 points. Four new traps identified: Iraq analogies, geopolitical framing, aggressive tone, bipartisan tone. (1,202 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of March 16, 2026](/research-and-writings/tavern-take-march-16-2026/index.html): Iran at 43-42. DHS three-ledger accountability. Epstein broken promise at −25. Exit strategy is now a weapon. The pattern: accountability and clarity are winning., Iran at 43-42. DHS three-ledger accountability. Epstein broken promise at −25. Exit strategy is now a weapon. The pattern: accountability and clarity are winning. (778 words)
- [Every Iran Escalation Polls Worse Than the Last.](/research-and-writings/iran-escalation-compounding-opposition/index.html): Net −7 to net −16 in four weeks. Gas field threat at −24. Special ops at −26. The opposition isn’t static—it’s compounding with every escalation., Net −7 to net −16 in four weeks. Gas field threat at −24. Special ops at −26. The opposition isn’t static—it’s compounding with every escalation. (924 words)
- [Voters Oppose Stripping Birthright Citizenship. They Oppose One Person Deciding It Even More.](/research-and-writings/birthright-citizenship-eo-opposition/index.html): New Tavern Research polling finds the constitutional process objection is as powerful as the policy objection — and it reaches beyond immigration voters., New Tavern Research polling finds the constitutional process objection is as powerful as the policy objection — and it reaches beyond immigration voters. (895 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of April 6, 2026](/research-and-writings/tavern-take-april-6-2026/index.html): Iran at 52% opposition. Medicaid has a 30% undecided pool. Concessive openers cost 9 points. Speed is the structural advantage., Iran at 52% opposition. Medicaid has a 30% undecided pool. Concessive openers cost 9 points. Speed is the structural advantage. (797 words)
- [The Playbook: Test More, Test Better.](/research-and-writings/the-playbook-message-testing/index.html): Most campaigns test what they already believe. Here's what systematic message testing actually looks like — and why the difference compounds over time., Most campaigns test what they already believe. Here's what systematic message testing actually looks like — and why the difference compounds over time.  (1,005 words)
- [What the Bottom of the Iran Message Battery Tells You](/research-and-writings/iran-messaging-gap-losers/index.html): The worst Iran message in Tavern's 70-frame battery scores 35%. The best scores 71%. The worst one is what consultants are still running., The worst Iran message in Tavern's 70-frame battery scores 35%. The best scores 71%. The worst one is what consultants are still running. (1,051 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of April 13, 2026](/research-and-writings/the-tavern-take-week-of-april-13-2026/index.html): Civilian harm is now the #1 Iran frame. Birthright citizenship's process argument hits as hard as the policy. And the old ad model is already broken.,  Civilian harm is now the #1 Iran frame. Birthright citizenship's process argument hits as hard as the policy. And the old ad model is already broken. (784 words)
- [The Government Can Search Your Data Without a Warrant. Voters Want That Fixed.](/research-and-writings/fisa-702-warrant-requirement-polling/index.html): 62% of voters support requiring a warrant before intelligence agencies search Americans' FISA data. Congress has 5 days to act., 62% of voters support requiring a warrant before intelligence agencies search Americans' FISA data. Congress has 5 days to act. (840 words)
- [The Playbook: The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money.](/research-and-writings/the-playbook-the-problem-with-the-old-model/index.html): The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money., The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money.  (781 words)
- [Make It About Their Kitchen Table, Not Your War.](/research-and-writings/make-it-about-their-kitchen-table-not-your-war/index.html): Across 15 surveys and 5,802 voters, connecting military spending to unmet domestic needs outperforms every other Iran argument by nearly double., Across 15 surveys and 5,802 voters, connecting military spending to unmet domestic needs outperforms every other Iran argument by nearly double. (748 words)
- [The Playbook: Real People. Real Responses. Real Results.](/research-and-writings/index.html) (1,112 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of March 30, 2026](/research-and-writings/tavern-take-march-30-2026/index.html): TSA, Iran, DOJ overrides, SAVE Act—voters punish the mechanism more than the decision. This week's pattern across four major issues., TSA, Iran, DOJ overrides, SAVE Act—voters punish the mechanism more than the decision. This week's pattern across four major issues. (672 words)
- [The Playbook: Your Ad Is Already Obsolete. Tavern’s Isn't.](/research-and-writings/the-playbook-working-upstream/index.html): Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests while it produces — and voters tell us what works before the ad ever airs., Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests while it produces — and voters tell us what works before the ad ever airs. (726 words)
- [The Iran Numbers Every Campaign Should Have Right Now.](/research-and-writings/iran-messaging-data-march-31-2026/index.html): Voters aren't waiting to form opinions on this war. Tavern polling shows 52% oppose the Iran war and a 36-pt majority wants an investigation. Here's what the message testing says works., Voters aren't waiting to form opinions on this war. Tavern polling shows 52% oppose the Iran war and a 36-pt majority wants an investigation. Here's what the message testing says works. (636 words)
- [Surprising new research finds Americans oppose technology that kills us, support technology that saves lives](/research-and-writings/voters-split-on-rfk-jr-health-agenda/index.html): Voters support some parts of the MAHA agenda and oppose other parts. Food safety reforms are popular, but voters oppose vaccine and public health cuts.,  Voters support some parts of the MAHA agenda and oppose other parts. Food safety reforms are popular, but voters oppose vaccine and public health cuts.  (629 words)
- [The Human Cost of the Iran War Is Now the Argument That Wins.](/research-and-writings/iran-civilian-harm-frame-top-performer/index.html): Civilian harm just became the strongest Iran frame in Tavern's dataset. The arguments most campaigns are still running are now second-tier., Civilian harm just became the strongest Iran frame in Tavern's dataset. The arguments most campaigns are still running are now second-tier. (716 words)
- [The Border Shutdown Walked Into an Airport and Lost.](/research-and-writings/tsa-dhs-shutdown-airport-split/index.html): The DHS shutdown split into two liabilities 60 points apart. 65% want standalone TSA funding. 51% oppose ICE at airports. Same survey, same voters., The DHS shutdown split into two liabilities 60 points apart. 65% want standalone TSA funding. 51% oppose ICE at airports. Same survey, same voters. (612 words)
- [The Iran War Is Nine Days Old. Public Support Is a Coin Flip.](/research-and-writings/iran-nine-days-public-support/index.html): 43-42 on the Iran operation. −17 on the rationale. −14 on Dover. Nine days in, rally-around-the-flag hasn’t materialized. The public entered skeptical., 43-42 on the Iran operation. −17 on the rationale. −14 on Dover. Nine days in, rally-around-the-flag hasn’t materialized. The public entered skeptical. (660 words)
- [55% Want Congressional Authorization. Congress Said No. The Public Noticed.](/research-and-writings/iran-nine-days-public-support-wagyt/index.html): The war powers vote failed in Congress. Voters supported it 55-27. 57% would trust a lawmaker more for crossing party lines. The 28-point gap is the story., The war powers vote failed in Congress. Voters supported it 55-27. 57% would trust a lawmaker more for crossing party lines. The 28-point gap is the story. (715 words)
- [Trump's Two Weakest Flanks on Iran — And They Compound Each Other.](/research-and-writings/2v1z7qjb98cr3non16itl0tt19yfvz/index.html): The Hormuz toll draws net -36 opposition — the worst margin in this week's data. Going without NATO adds net -30. Together they're the same argument., The Hormuz toll draws net -36 opposition — the worst margin in this week's data. Going without NATO adds net -30. Together they're the same argument. (860 words)
- [THE LAB: The Attention Problem](/research-and-writings/the-attention-problem/index.html): Conventional wisdom says engagement and persuasion are a tradeoff. The conventional wisdom is wrong – and we know the secret to why., Conventional wisdom says engagement and persuasion are a tradeoff. The conventional wisdom is wrong – and we know the secret to why. (557 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 10, 2026](/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-april-10-2026/index.html): Half the country supports removal. The press-jailing story barely anyone's heard. The $1.5T defense budget underwater. Quick hits from this week's data., Half the country supports removal. The press-jailing story barely anyone's heard. The $1.5T defense budget underwater. Quick hits from this week's data. (740 words)
- [Firing Noem Wasn’t Enough. The $220M Is Still on the Ledger.](/research-and-writings/dhs-ad-spend-noem-firing-accountability/index.html): The Noem firing was net +47. The $220M ad spend is net −65. And 73% want independent investigations into federal enforcement deaths. Voters aren't conflating any of them., The Noem firing was net +47. The $220M ad spend is net −65. And 73% want independent investigations into federal enforcement deaths. Voters aren't conflating any of them. (576 words)
- [The DOJ Override Template: The Breonna Taylor Number That Applies to Every Case That Comes Next](/research-and-writings/doj-political-appointees-override-net-negative-45/index.html): Political appointees overriding career prosecutors: 61% oppose, 16% support. The process is 28 points more damaging than the Breonna Taylor case dismissal itself., Political appointees overriding career prosecutors: 61% oppose, 16% support. The process is 28 points more damaging than the Breonna Taylor case dismissal itself. (582 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – Mar 27, 2026](/research-and-writings/the-cutting-room-floor-03272026/index.html): Mail ballots at 53% major issue. FISA warrants at +34. Joe Kent: they want him out but don’t think he was wrong. Quick hits from this week., Mail ballots at 53% major issue. FISA warrants at +34. Joe Kent: they want him out but don’t think he was wrong. Quick hits from this week. (544 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of March 9, 2026](/research-and-writings/tavern-take-march9-2026/index.html): Iran messaging at 70%. Epstein files at 73-8. Anthropic wins by 17 points. Tariffs still underwater. The pattern: accountability and transparency are winning., Iran messaging at 70%. Epstein files at 73-8. Anthropic wins by 17 points. Tariffs still underwater. The pattern: accountability and transparency are winning. (453 words)
- [Texas SENATE: Talarico Dominates Independents, Cornyn's Trump Pitch Backfires](/research-and-writings/texas-senate-primary-independent-voters-2026/index.html): New polling of 1,070 Texas independents: Talarico outpaces Crockett after debate. Hunt beats Cornyn on message despite policy deficit. Full report available., New polling of 1,070 Texas independents: Talarico outpaces Crockett after debate. Hunt beats Cornyn on message despite policy deficit. Full report available. (616 words)
- [The Iran Message That's Working](/research-and-writings/iran-message-constitutional-frame/index.html): Constitutional overreach beats hawkish justification by 50 points. "Trump violated the Constitution" tests at 70%. "Peace through strength" tests at 21%., Constitutional overreach beats hawkish justification by 50 points. "Trump violated the Constitution" tests at 70%. "Peace through strength" tests at 21%. (668 words)
- [Transparency Wins. Treatment Restrictions Lose. How Voters Are Actually Reading the SAVE Act.](/research-and-writings/save-act-42-point-gap-provisions/index.html): Parental notification at +31. Care restrictions at −11. Voters are judging SAVE Act provisions independently—and the 42-point gap is the story., Parental notification at +31. Care restrictions at −11. Voters are judging SAVE Act provisions independently—and the 42-point gap is the story. (630 words)
- [Iran Strikes Opposed by 19-Point Margin; Voters Back Congressional War Powers Vote](/research-and-writings/022826-iran-strike-poll/index.html): Flash poll: Voters oppose US-Israel Iran strikes 45-26. No rally-around-the-flag bump. 45% support requiring a congressional War Powers vote., Flash poll: Voters oppose US-Israel Iran strikes 45-26. No rally-around-the-flag bump. 45% support requiring a congressional War Powers vote. (535 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of March 2, 2026](/research-and-writings/tavern-take-march-2-2026/index.html): This week's pattern: voters filter everything through accountability and affordability. Economic framing beats constitutional arguments across issues., This week's pattern: voters filter everything through accountability and affordability. Economic framing beats constitutional arguments across issues. (403 words)
- [The Issue Campaigns Should Be Defining Before Republicans Do.](/research-and-writings/medicaid-snap-eligibility-2026-sleeper-issue/index.html): 30% of voters have no opinion on Medicaid/SNAP eligibility cuts — but 46% already call it a major midterm issue. Here's why that gap is the opportunity., 30% of voters have no opinion on Medicaid/SNAP eligibility cuts — but 46% already call it a major midterm issue. Here's why that gap is the opportunity. (633 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – Mar 13, 2026](/research-and-writings/the-cutting-room-floor-03132026/index.html): $100 oil as a job performance issue. MTG's anti-war critique at 51%. White House caught changing deportation messaging. Quick hits from this week's polling., $100 oil as a job performance issue. MTG's anti-war critique at 51%. White House caught changing deportation messaging. Quick hits from this week's polling. (620 words)
- [The Epstein Finding Isn't 53-20. It's the Broken Promise at −25.](/research-and-writings/epstein-files-broken-promise-trump-bondi-subpoena/index.html): 53% support subpoenaing Bondi. 54% want a congressional investigation. But Trump's retreat from his 2024 release promise polls 15 points worse than his overall approval., 53% support subpoenaing Bondi. 54% want a congressional investigation. But Trump's retreat from his 2024 release promise polls 15 points worse than his overall approval. (608 words)
- [The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Changed Nothing](/research-and-writings/scotus-tariff-ruling-changed-nothing/index.html): Legal wins ≠ political wins. Voters welcomed the Court ruling (+31) then rejected Trump's new tariff (-24). The economic argument beats the legal argument., Legal wins ≠ political wins. Voters welcomed the Court ruling (+31) then rejected Trump's new tariff (-24). The economic argument beats the legal argument. (414 words)
- [Voters Side With Anthropic](/research-and-writings/voters-side-with-anthropic/index.html): The administration picked a fight with an AI company. The public sided with the company. 45-29 support Anthropic's refusal to remove safety guardrails., The administration picked a fight with an AI company. The public sided with the company. 45-29 support Anthropic's refusal to remove safety guardrails. (445 words)
- [The SCOTUS Appointment Fight Is a Sleeping Giant. It's About to Wake Up.](/research-and-writings/scotus-appointment-awareness-gap/index.html): 49% of voters call Trump's Supreme Court plans a major issue — but only 6% have heard about them. The moment coverage hits, the numbers get worse., 49% of voters call Trump's Supreme Court plans a major issue — but only 6% have heard about them. The moment coverage hits, the numbers get worse. (512 words)
- [The Epstein Files Are a Supermajority Issue](/research-and-writings/epstein-files-supermajority-support/index.html): The demand for transparency is overwhelming. 73-8 support releasing withheld Epstein pages. Congressional oversight hearings poll at +46., The demand for transparency is overwhelming. 73-8 support releasing withheld Epstein pages. Congressional oversight hearings poll at +46. (381 words)
- [This Isn't an Immigration Debate. It's a Corruption Debate.](/research-and-writings/gold-card-immigration-polling/index.html): essage testing on Trump's Gold Card visa: fairness framing beats policy nuance by 30 points. Even Republicans split on the tax exemption., essage testing on Trump's Gold Card visa: fairness framing beats policy nuance by 30 points. Even Republicans split on the tax exemption. (385 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 3, 2026](/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-04032026/index.html): Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting., Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting. (523 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 17, 2026](/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-april-18-2026/index.html): Seven findings that didn't make the main feed this week — from the worst message in 80 tested to Republican silence polling worse than the statement itself., Seven findings that didn't make the main feed this week — from the worst message in 80 tested to Republican silence polling worse than the statement itself. (503 words)
- [Every Issue Is an Economic Issue Now.](/research-and-writings/every-issue-is-an-economic-issue-now/index.html): New polling: "chaos tax" outperforms "unconstitutional overreach" on tariffs. The economic frame wins. Here's the data and what to say., New polling: "chaos tax" outperforms "unconstitutional overreach" on tariffs. The economic frame wins. Here's the data and what to say. (383 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – Mar 6, 2026](/research-and-writings/the-cutting-room-floor-03062026/index.html): Strip club trips test at 72%. Secretary of War rebrand at -23. Ivy League tuition ban at -28. Quick hits from this week's polling., Strip club trips test at 72%. Secretary of War rebrand at -23. Ivy League tuition ban at -28. Quick hits from this week's polling. (286 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – Feb 27, 2026](/research-and-writings/the-cutting-room-floor-02272026/index.html): Surprising crosstabs from this week's polling. Gold Card tax exemptions, TX-32 intensity, AI therapists, and more., Surprising crosstabs from this week's polling. Gold Card tax exemptions, TX-32 intensity, AI therapists, and more. (289 words)
- [The "Fight Trump" Playbook Is Losing to "Fix My Rent"](/research-and-writings/california-affordability-polling-022626/index.html): Democrats lead by 26 on generic ballot but trail by 13 on incumbent approval. Voters want housing fixed, not federal fights., Democrats lead by 26 on generic ballot but trail by 13 on incumbent approval. Voters want housing fixed, not federal fights. (263 words)
- [52% Say Excessive Force. 56% Say Too Far.](/research-and-writings/52-say-excessive-force-56-say-too-far/index.html): Americans aren't buying the administration's line on ICE, they want accountability for Minneapolis, and they oppose the abortion crackdown,  Americans aren't buying the administration's line on ICE, they want accountability for Minneapolis, and they oppose the abortion crackdown  (157 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 3, 2026](/research-and-writings/tag/kash-patel/index.html) (44 words)

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