# LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot

**May 12, 2026 | 2 min read**

In our May 1–4 survey, **Karen Bass leads with 22%**, followed by Spencer Pratt at **18%** and Nithya Raman at **16%**. Rae Huang and Adam Miller are at 4% and 2%. No other candidate clears 1%. **46% are undecided** on the initial ballot; after a follow-up push asking undecideds who they'd be most likely to support, undecided drops to 29% and the order becomes Bass 22, Pratt 18, Raman 16, Adam Miller 6, Rae Huang 5.

Across four publicly released polls since early March — Emerson (Mar 7–9), Berkeley IGS (Mar 9–15), UCLA Luskin (Mar 15–29), and Tavern (May 1–4) — Bass has ranged from **19% to 25%**. The four-poll average is Bass 23, Pratt 13, Raman 13. Our survey is the third consecutive poll placing Raman in third.

Among the 244 respondents who picked a candidate (excluding "other" and "not sure"), **61% say they'll definitely vote for that candidate; 39% say they might change their mind.**

#### **Head-to-head matchups**

We modeled three hypothetical runoffs by combining stated preferences with imputed preferences for undecideds and respondents who dropped off before the ballot test. The results:

#### **Favorability**

For context, Kamala Harris is at 62% favorable / 36% unfavorable (net +26) and Joe Biden is at 57% / 41% (net +16) among the same sample.

#### **Issues**

**Asked the most pressing issue facing Los Angeles today:**

- Cost of living: **47%**  
- Homelessness: 20%  
- Fiscal responsibility: 11%  
- Public safety: 10%  
- Federal government overreach: 8%  
- Road safety / crumbling infrastructure: 5%  
- Olympics preparation: 0%

**Asked the second-most-pressing issue:**

- Homelessness: **32%**  
- Cost of living: 29%  
- Federal government overreach: 13%  
- Public safety: 10%  
- Fiscal responsibility: 9%  
- Road safety / crumbling infrastructure: 7%  
- Olympics preparation: 0%

On changing city regulations to allow new housing units in every neighborhood across LA (n=358): **26% strongly support, 23% somewhat support, 15% neither, 8% somewhat oppose, 16% strongly oppose, 12% don't know.** Combined support is 49%; combined opposition is 24%.

**For the full results email data@tavernresearch.com**  
_Methodology: Online sample of 531 likely LA primary voters, fielded text-to-web May 1–4, 2026, weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history. MOE ±6.1%. Commissioned by Growth Machine Fund, A Project of Abundance Network, and Abundance Network. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.