# Texas SENATE: Talarico Dominates Independents, Cornyn's Trump Pitch Backfires

Feb 25  
Written By [Matt Lackey](https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings?author=686be00ada6b295c25b97c4b)  
_Independent voters prefer Talarico over Crockett; Cornyn and Hunt edge out Paxton._

February 25, 2026  | 3 min read

#### BOTTOM LINE

**Talarico wins the Democratic comparison.** Independent respondents who watched the Democratic debate clips preferred Talarico over Crockett **76-24** as the better senator. After the debate, Talarico surged 19 points — more than double Crockett's 9-point gain.

**Hunt and Cornyn lead Paxton.** Independent respondents who read issue positions and messaging based on Republican candidate statements said that Hunt and Cornyn would make better senators than Paxton with **41%, 38%, and 20%** of support, respectively. Cornyn swept all four policy issues, but Hunt won the campaign message — independents rejected Cornyn's Trump-heavy pitch.

#### Democratic Primary: Talarico Pulls Away

Talarico won every issue tested: opening statements (69-31), immigration & ICE (75-25), taxes (60-40), affordability (73-27), healthcare (76-24), and closing statements (78-22).

**The partisan-lean pattern:** Talarico's lead was narrower among Democratic-leaning independents (62%), larger among pure independents (75%), and largest among Republican-leaning independents (89%). The more Republican-leaning the voter, the stronger Talarico's advantage.

In general-election matchups, Talarico jumped to 69% support after the debate while Crockett reached 59%—a 10-point gap. Talarico outperformed the Democratic average by +5.1 percentage points; Crockett underperformed by -5.1 points.

#### Republican Primary: Cornyn Wins Policy, Hunt Wins Message

Cornyn led on all four policy areas—border security (53%), healthcare (50%), economy & taxes (56%), and affordability (47%). But Hunt dominated the campaign message comparison (53% to Cornyn's 26%), emphasizing generational change over Cornyn's Trump-heavy pitch.

**The Trump factor:** Among reasons independents gave for disliking Cornyn, "Trump/MAGA Alignment" topped the list at 30%. Hunt faced similar criticism (22% cited Trump/MAGA alignment as a negative), but his "fresh leadership" message (cited positively by 30%) offset it.

Paxton trailed on every measure. His strongest appeal—"anti-establishment/outsider/patriotism"—registered with 42% of those who liked him, but that base was small. In general-election matchups, Paxton underperformed the Republican average by -1.6 points.

**The partisan-lean divide among independents:** Democratic-leaning independents favor Cornyn (52%) over Hunt (35%) and Paxton (13%). Republican-leaning independents favor Hunt (47%) over Cornyn (29%) and Paxton (25%). Pure independents fall in between: Hunt (41%), Cornyn (38%), Paxton (21%).

#### What This Means

- **For the Democratic Primary:** Talarico's communication style consolidated support across independent voter segments. His strongest performances came on healthcare and closing statements.
- **For the Republican Primary:** Cornyn has a policy advantage but a messaging problem. His close alignment with President Trump cost him among independents—the voters who will decide the general election. Hunt's "generational change" pitch outperformed despite thinner policy specifics.
- **For the General Election:** Before any content exposure, Cornyn led narrowly in general-election matchups (51.7% average). After all content, Hunt edged ahead (45.0% to Cornyn's 43.4%). The candidate who wins the Republican primary will face different challenges against Talarico versus Crockett.

Methodology: **On 02.08.2026 – 02.14.2026, Tavern Research surveyed 1,070 Texas independent voters — defined as self-identified independents who are registered to vote** — to test how they respond to the messages and debate performances of the candidates in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race. They watched clips from the January 24, 2026 AFL-CIO Democratic primary debate between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, then read policy positions from the three leading Republican primary candidates: John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt, and Ken Paxton. _Support figures in this report include respondents who initially said "not sure" but chose a candidate when pushed; toplines and crosstabs break these out separately._ Toplines and crosstabs are available upon request.