# tavernresearch.com

> AI-optimized mirror of tavernresearch.com containing 48 pages totalling 31,808 words of clean markdown content, structured data, and semantic HTML. Original source: https://tavernresearch.com/. Last updated: 2026-06-09T04:59:17.054Z.

Each page is available as HTML (with JSON-LD structured data) and Markdown (text-only, ideal for LLMs and RAG).

## Homepage

- [Tavern Research](/content/site-root.html): Tavern Research specializes in opinion research, AI-powered content creation, message testing, and strategic insights to inform campaigns and influence public opinion effectively., Tavern Research specializes in opinion research, AI-powered content creation, message testing, and strategic insights to inform campaigns and influence public opinion effectively. (597 words)

## Articles & Blog Posts

- [Transparency Wins. Treatment Restrictions Lose. How Voters Are Actually Reading the SAVE Act.](/content/research-and-writings/save-act-42-point-gap-provisions/index.html): Parental notification at +31. Care restrictions at −11. Voters are judging SAVE Act provisions independently—and the 42-point gap is the story., Parental notification at +31. Care restrictions at −11. Voters are judging SAVE Act provisions independently—and the 42-point gap is the story. (630 words)
- [The Playbook: The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money.](/content/research-and-writings/the-playbook-the-problem-with-the-old-model/index.html): The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money., The Problem With the Old Model – Too Few Choices, Too Much Money.  (781 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of April 13, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/the-tavern-take-week-of-april-13-2026/index.html): Civilian harm is now the #1 Iran frame. Birthright citizenship's process argument hits as hard as the policy. And the old ad model is already broken.,  Civilian harm is now the #1 Iran frame. Birthright citizenship's process argument hits as hard as the policy. And the old ad model is already broken. (784 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of March 30, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/tavern-take-march-30-2026/index.html): TSA, Iran, DOJ overrides, SAVE Act—voters punish the mechanism more than the decision. This week's pattern across four major issues., TSA, Iran, DOJ overrides, SAVE Act—voters punish the mechanism more than the decision. This week's pattern across four major issues. (672 words)
- [What the Bottom of the Iran Message Battery Tells You](/content/research-and-writings/iran-messaging-gap-losers/index.html): The worst Iran message in Tavern's 70-frame battery scores 35%. The best scores 71%. The worst one is what consultants are still running., The worst Iran message in Tavern's 70-frame battery scores 35%. The best scores 71%. The worst one is what consultants are still running. (1,051 words)
- [The Playbook: Real People. Real Responses. Real Results.](/content/research-and-writings/the-playbook-better-polling/index.html): Most "AI" in politics is just a shortcut for worse results. Tavern uses AI to speed up what actually works: asking real humans what they think and finding the winning message., Most "AI" in politics is just a shortcut for worse results. Tavern uses AI to speed up what actually works: asking real humans what they think and finding the winning message. (867 words)
- [MaxDiff Memo: Iran Messaging – Why "Reckless + Gas Prices" Wins](/content/research-and-writings/maxdiffmemo-050526-iran-messaging-reckless-gas-prices.html): We tested 70 Democratic messages on Iran. Attacking Trump's judgment and tying conflict to gas prices beat every procedural frame. Here's the data., We tested 70 Democratic messages on Iran. Attacking Trump's judgment and tying conflict to gas prices beat every procedural frame. Here's the data. (978 words)
- [The Government Can Search Your Data Without a Warrant. Voters Want That Fixed.](/content/research-and-writings/fisa-702-warrant-requirement-polling/index.html): 62% of voters support requiring a warrant before intelligence agencies search Americans' FISA data. Congress has 5 days to act., 62% of voters support requiring a warrant before intelligence agencies search Americans' FISA data. Congress has 5 days to act. (840 words)
- [Hegseth Has Become a Liability That Rivals the President.](/content/research-and-writings/hegseth-impeachment-polling/index.html): 48% oppose Hegseth continuing to serve — a -20 net that rivals Trump’s own -24 approval. Impeachment support leads opposition by 11 points., 48% oppose Hegseth continuing to serve — a -20 net that rivals Trump’s own -24 approval. Impeachment support leads opposition by 11 points. (669 words)
- [The Playbook: Test More, Test Better.](/content/research-and-writings/the-playbook-message-testing/index.html): Most campaigns test what they already believe. Here's what systematic message testing actually looks like — and why the difference compounds over time., Most campaigns test what they already believe. Here's what systematic message testing actually looks like — and why the difference compounds over time.  (1,005 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – Mar 27, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/the-cutting-room-floor-03272026/index.html): Mail ballots at 53% major issue. FISA warrants at +34. Joe Kent: they want him out but don’t think he was wrong. Quick hits from this week., Mail ballots at 53% major issue. FISA warrants at +34. Joe Kent: they want him out but don’t think he was wrong. Quick hits from this week. (544 words)
- [TrumpRx: Side Effects Include Nausea, Vomiting, and a Net -24.](/content/research-and-writings/trumprx-drug-pricing-underwater-rfk-hhs/index.html): TrumpRx hits -24 net opposition — double Trump’s own -12 approval floor. Protonix at $200 vs. $14 at retail is already the attack that’s landing., TrumpRx hits -24 net opposition — double Trump’s own -12 approval floor. Protonix at $200 vs. $14 at retail is already the attack that’s landing. (767 words)
- [Maine Senate: Platner Leads Primary 68–16.](/content/research-and-writings/index.html) (1,003 words)
- [MaxDiff Memo: The CEOs Are the Trump-Xi Summit's Real Vulnerability](/content/research-and-writings/trump-xi-summit-ceo-delegation/index.html): Trump's Xi White House invite polls +20. The Musk-Cook-Huang delegation polls −17.5. Voters drew a clean line between diplomacy and corporate access., Trump's Xi White House invite polls +20. The Musk-Cook-Huang delegation polls −17.5. Voters drew a clean line between diplomacy and corporate access. (693 words)
- [MaxDiff Memo: Frame Ice Funding As A Blank Check Lacking Financial Oversight](/content/research-and-writings/maxdiffmemo-ice-funding/index.html): Voters aren’t debating immigration policy—they’re rejecting unchecked power. The top ICE funding message hits 70.9% by framing it as a “blank check” with no oversight. Here’s what works—and what fails.,  Voters aren’t debating immigration policy—they’re rejecting unchecked power. The top ICE funding message hits 70.9% by framing it as a “blank check” with no oversight. Here’s what works—and what fails.  (1,061 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of April 27, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/the-tavern-take-week-of-april-27-2026/index.html): SCOTUS awareness gap, Iran messaging failures, and FISA clarity all point to one pattern: voters decide fast once they engage., SCOTUS awareness gap, Iran messaging failures, and FISA clarity all point to one pattern: voters decide fast once they engage. (504 words)
- [The Issue Campaigns Should Be Defining Before Republicans Do.](/content/research-and-writings/medicaid-snap-eligibility-2026-sleeper-issue/index.html): 30% of voters have no opinion on Medicaid/SNAP eligibility cuts — but 46% already call it a major midterm issue. Here's why that gap is the opportunity., 30% of voters have no opinion on Medicaid/SNAP eligibility cuts — but 46% already call it a major midterm issue. Here's why that gap is the opportunity. (633 words)
- [Trump's Two Weakest Flanks on Iran — And They Compound Each Other.](/content/research-and-writings/trumps-weakest-flanks-in-iran/index.html): The Hormuz toll draws net -36 opposition — the worst margin in this week's data. Going without NATO adds net -30. Together they're the same argument., The Hormuz toll draws net -36 opposition — the worst margin in this week's data. Going without NATO adds net -30. Together they're the same argument. (860 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of June 8, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/the-tavern-take-week-of-june-8-2026/index.html): Daily polling last week: the DOJ fund at net -38, foreign aid flipping 36 points in six days, and one frame that beat values on every issue., Daily polling last week: the DOJ fund at net -38, foreign aid flipping 36 points in six days, and one frame that beat values on every issue. (1,157 words)
- [The SCOTUS Appointment Fight Is a Sleeping Giant. It's About to Wake Up.](/content/research-and-writings/scotus-appointment-awareness-gap/index.html): 49% of voters call Trump's Supreme Court plans a major issue — but only 6% have heard about them. The moment coverage hits, the numbers get worse., 49% of voters call Trump's Supreme Court plans a major issue — but only 6% have heard about them. The moment coverage hits, the numbers get worse. (512 words)
- [Voters Oppose Stripping Birthright Citizenship. They Oppose One Person Deciding It Even More.](/content/research-and-writings/birthright-citizenship-eo-opposition/index.html): New Tavern Research polling finds the constitutional process objection is as powerful as the policy objection — and it reaches beyond immigration voters., New Tavern Research polling finds the constitutional process objection is as powerful as the policy objection — and it reaches beyond immigration voters. (895 words)
- [The Tavern Take: Week of April 6, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/tavern-take-april-6-2026/index.html): Iran at 52% opposition. Medicaid has a 30% undecided pool. Concessive openers cost 9 points. Speed is the structural advantage., Iran at 52% opposition. Medicaid has a 30% undecided pool. Concessive openers cost 9 points. Speed is the structural advantage. (797 words)
- [After the WHCD Shooting, the Public Isn’t Choosing Between Order and Reform — They Want Both.](/content/research-and-writings/whcd-shooting-political-violence/index.html): After the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting, voters aren’t choosing between law-and-order and prevention—they want both. New data shows a public demanding force and stricter gun access.,  After the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting, voters aren’t choosing between law-and-order and prevention—they want both. New data shows a public demanding force and stricter gun access. (572 words)
- [LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot](/content/research-and-writings/la-mayoral-primary-may-2026-polling-snapshot/index.html): Tavern Research polled 531 likely LA voters May 1–4: Karen Bass 22, Spencer Pratt 18, Nithya Raman 16. Full toplines and head-to-head matchups., Tavern Research polled 531 likely LA voters May 1–4: Karen Bass 22, Spencer Pratt 18, Nithya Raman 16. Full toplines and head-to-head matchups. (412 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 3, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-04032026/index.html): Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting., Five quick findings from the week's polling — NATO, No Kings backlash, birthright citizenship, Patel's email breach, and mail-in voting. (523 words)
- [THE PLAYBOOK: What We Do vs. The Normal Guys](/content/research-and-writings/maxdiffmemo-050426-ice-funding/index.html): Voters reject unchecked executive power. “Blank check” oversight frame leads at 70.9% in ICE funding message testing., Voters reject unchecked executive power. “Blank check” oversight frame leads at 70.9% in ICE funding message testing. (621 words)
- [Voters Don't Want Global Health Money Paying for USAID's Dismantling.](/content/research-and-writings/usaid-shutdown-costs-redirected-aid-timeline/index.html): Voters split 38–31 against redirecting $3.2B in global health and development funds to USAID shutdown costs, and back a Senate-requested restoration timeline 48–22., Voters split 38–31 against redirecting $3.2B in global health and development funds to USAID shutdown costs, and back a Senate-requested restoration timeline 48–22. (777 words)
- [The Human Cost of the Iran War Is Now the Argument That Wins.](/content/research-and-writings/iran-civilian-harm-frame-top-performer/index.html): Civilian harm just became the strongest Iran frame in Tavern's dataset. The arguments most campaigns are still running are now second-tier., Civilian harm just became the strongest Iran frame in Tavern's dataset. The arguments most campaigns are still running are now second-tier. (716 words)
- [The Playbook: Your Ad Is Already Obsolete. Tavern’s Isn't.](/content/research-and-writings/the-playbook-working-upstream/index.html): Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests while it produces — and voters tell us what works before the ad ever airs., Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests while it produces — and voters tell us what works before the ad ever airs. (726 words)
- [Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.](/content/research-and-writings/nebraska-senate-poll/index.html): Nebraska Senate poll: Ricketts leads three Democrats but trails independent Dan Osborn 47-42. Independents are the difference — they break for Osborn 62-20.,  Nebraska Senate poll: Ricketts leads three Democrats but trails independent Dan Osborn 47-42. Independents are the difference — they break for Osborn 62-20. (485 words)
- [NY-12 Democratic Primary: Bores Leads at 20%. The largest Bloc is Still Unclaimed.](/content/research-and-writings/ny12-primary-undecided-bores-schlossberg-lasher/index.html): 28% of likely voters are still undecided, 28% of likely voters are still undecided (507 words)
- [The Lab: Gone in Sixteen Seconds](/content/research-and-writings/political-ad-length-persuasion/index.html): We tested political ad length on 19,470 likely voters with Mind the Gap. Persuasion is essentially gone after 15 seconds. Drop the length, up the volume., We tested political ad length on 19,470 likely voters with Mind the Gap. Persuasion is essentially gone after 15 seconds. Drop the length, up the volume. (627 words)
- [The Redistricting Argument Democrats Are Actually Winning](/content/research-and-writings/virginia-redistricting-fairness-frame-polling/index.html): Virginia redistricting loses at the topline (-8). The Democratic fairness argument wins (+9). New Tavern data shows a 17-point swing from reframing alone., Virginia redistricting loses at the topline (-8). The Democratic fairness argument wins (+9). New Tavern data shows a 17-point swing from reframing alone. (593 words)
- [WI-06: Grothman Leads Every Matchup. Independent, Michael Thurow, Cuts His Margin in Half.](/content/research-and-writings/wi06-grothman-independent-halves-margin/index.html): Grothman leads WI-06 in every matchup, but independent Michael Thurow cuts his margin from 22 to 10. Almost no one knows the challengers yet., Grothman leads WI-06 in every matchup, but independent Michael Thurow cuts his margin from 22 to 10. Almost no one knows the challengers yet. (566 words)
- [AK-AL: Begich Leads Every Matchup. An Unknown Independent Runs Closest.](/content/research-and-writings/ak-al-begich-leads-independent-runs-closest/index.html): Nick Begich leads all three AK at-large matchups but never clears 55%. His closest challenger is an independent 79% of voters can't identify., Nick Begich leads all three AK at-large matchups but never clears 55%. His closest challenger is an independent 79% of voters can't identify. (809 words)
- [Virginia Voters Back the Court and the Map at the Same Time.](/content/research-and-writings/virginia-supreme-court-redistricting-ruling-poll/index.html): Virginia voters narrowly support the state Supreme Court striking down the voter-approved congressional map (40–35) and also narrowly support Democratic efforts to restore it (37–30). Neither side has the narrative yet., Virginia voters narrowly support the state Supreme Court striking down the voter-approved congressional map (40–35) and also narrowly support Democratic efforts to restore it (37–30). Neither side has the narrative yet. (774 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – May 8, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-may-8-2026/index.html): East Wing funding 46–24 against. "Mass deportations" splits 41–40. Tennessee map 47–26 against. Quick hits from this week's polling., East Wing funding 46–24 against. "Mass deportations" splits 41–40. Tennessee map 47–26 against. Quick hits from this week's polling. (559 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – April 17, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-april-18-2026/index.html): Seven findings that didn't make the main feed this week — from the worst message in 80 tested to Republican silence polling worse than the statement itself., Seven findings that didn't make the main feed this week — from the worst message in 80 tested to Republican silence polling worse than the statement itself. (503 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – May 15, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-may-15-2026/index.html): Tavern Research's weekly Cutting Room Floor: Iran messaging penalties, the Democratic advantage on war costs, Trump's Ukraine ceasefire credit, Tennessee's gerrymandering numbers, and what 86% of voters think about who really runs the government., Tavern Research's weekly Cutting Room Floor: Iran messaging penalties, the Democratic advantage on war costs, Trump's Ukraine ceasefire credit, Tennessee's gerrymandering numbers, and what 86% of voters think about who really runs the government. (570 words)
- [Montana Senate: Bodnar Ties Alme Head-To-Head. Alme Leads When The Field Expands.](/content/research-and-writings/montana-senate-bodnar-ballot-split/index.html): Independent Seth Bodnar ties Republican Kurt Alme 50-50 head-to-head, but Alme leads when Bodnar and a Democrat are both on the ballot., Independent Seth Bodnar ties Republican Kurt Alme 50-50 head-to-head, but Alme leads when Bodnar and a Democrat are both on the ballot. (622 words)
- [Louisiana Voting Rights Act: Lead With District Lines.](/content/research-and-writings/voting-rights-frame-louisiana-redistricting/index.html): Adding the Voting Rights Act framing to the Louisiana case widens opposition from 3 to 6 points. The legal language is moving voters the wrong way., Adding the Voting Rights Act framing to the Louisiana case widens opposition from 3 to 6 points. The legal language is moving voters the wrong way. (546 words)
- [The Cutting Room Floor – May 1, 2026](/content/research-and-writings/cutting-room-floor-may-1-2026/index.html): 0.4% trust the press. 97% say foreign aid is too high. 79% support the death penalty in principle — 44% support the actual expansion. Quick hits from this week’s polling., 0.4% trust the press. 97% say foreign aid is too high. 79% support the death penalty in principle — 44% support the actual expansion. Quick hits from this week’s polling. (441 words)
- [Tavern Research](/content/research-and-writings/wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent.html) (74 words)
- [NJ-07 Democratic Primary: Bennett Leads at 32%.](/content/research-and-writings/nj07-democratic-primary-bennett-leads-undecided/index.html): Rebecca Bennett leads the NJ-07 Democratic primary at 32%, but 24% are undecided and second place is a three-way tie inside the 5.4% margin., Rebecca Bennett leads the NJ-07 Democratic primary at 32%, but 24% are undecided and second place is a three-way tie inside the 5.4% margin. (392 words)
- [PA-07 Democratic Primary: Brooks Leads With One Day to Go](/content/research-and-writings/pa07-primary-brooks-leads/index.html): Bob Brooks leads the PA-07 Democratic primary at 26%, but 31% are still undecided with one day to go. McClure and Crosswell are within 10., Bob Brooks leads the PA-07 Democratic primary at 26%, but 31% are still undecided with one day to go. McClure and Crosswell are within 10. (391 words)
- [Majority of Americans Say Courts Should Not Overrule Doctors and the FDA on Access to Approved Medications](/content/research-and-writings/majority-of-americans-say-courts-should-not-overrule-doctors-and-the-fda-on-access-to-approved-medications.html): Today, the Supreme Court ruled to provisionally block a lower court decision that would limit the nationwide availability of the abortion medication mifepristone.,  Today, the Supreme Court ruled to provisionally block a lower court decision that would limit the nationwide availability of the abortion medication mifepristone. (66 words)
- [The Iran Numbers Every Campaign Should Have Right Now.](/content/research-and-writings/iran-messaging-data-march-31-2026/index.html): Voters aren't waiting to form opinions on this war. Tavern polling shows 52% oppose the Iran war and a 36-pt majority wants an investigation. Here's what the message testing says works., Voters aren't waiting to form opinions on this war. Tavern polling shows 52% oppose the Iran war and a 36-pt majority wants an investigation. Here's what the message testing says works. (636 words)

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